Tuesday, April 22, 2008

dems oil the machine

One more day in the body-slam politic and nothing is likely to be decided so don't get your hopes up too high. The only way the Democratic fight ends tomorrow is if Barack Obama channels Apollo Creed and delivers a late-round knockout blow to the never-say-die puncher Hillary Rodham Clinton. No, more likely HRC wins by single digits and garners a small number of the delegates up for grabs tomorrow.

There are 158 delegates at stake in Pennsylvania, and if the final tally is 52 percent Clinton and 48 percent Obama, then she would win 82 delegates to Obama's 76 delegates. Hardly hoopla numbers but any victory by the Clinton camp will be ballyhooed with banners and bazookas.

Then it's on to North Carolina, where guess what, the reverse will likely happen. Obama holds a commanding lead in North Carolina and let's for the sake of this arguement, keep the final percent the same, except reverse the numbers, Obama 52 percent to Clinton's 48 percent. It that were to happen, then he would get 60 delegates and Clinton would be awarded 55 of the 115 total available. Between the two is Indiana, which is even more of a toss-up, and the vote could be close enough to spilt the 72 Indiana delegates right down the middle.

So after 6 weeks between the last primary, and many millions of dollars spent, and a lot of rancor stirred up in the party, the shift would actually be 1 more vote to Obama. One more vote! Do the math. This is why the party regulars keep slowly shifting toward Obama. There's no way, without landslide victories that the rest of the primary season can be spun as a Clinton victory. Why don't you hear about this in the media? Well the millions of dollars being spent on the campaign, wouldn't be being spent if it were already a done deal.

There was this today though from the DNCC.

"Not only will our Convention be technically flawless, but the rules and Party business conducted in the lead-up to and during Convention week will be open, orderly and credible," said Leah D. Daughtry, CEO of the DNCC. "DemConvention.com will be a tremendous resource for those interested in the significant amount of Party business that sits at the core of every Convention. I think this new content makes clear our goal is to run this Convention as a well-oiled machine, while producing an engaging celebration of the strength of the Democratic Party, the diversity we embrace, the values we share and the change we will accomplish on behalf of the American people."

Open, orderly, and credible. Like a debate?

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